Explore the scholarly record.

Abstract

Climate-driven pavement deterioration creates maintenance challenges with consequences for network service. This study develops a robustness-redundancy-criticality (B-R-C) framework for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) motorway network, incorporating climate data from four CMIP6 models across SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The framework integrates performance-based robustness and redundancy, evaluated using rutting depth, with network criticality measured by the travel-time consequences of segment removal. Ensemble results show increasing rutting and declining robustness and redundancy, particularly after mid-century under SSP5-8.5 scenario. By 2080-2099, approximately 22 % and 36 % of segments retain positive robustness and redundancy margins under SSP2-4.5 scenario respectively, compared with 5 % and 24 % under SSP5-8.5 scenario. Inter-model differences in the numbers of segments in each pavement category also increase in later periods. By integrating pavement performance states with network criticality, the framework supports screening for monitoring, preventive maintenance and rehabilitation priorities under future heat stress.